Ask people around the world what artificial intelligence will do to jobs over the next 20 years, and a plurality answer one thing: fewer of them. In 34 of 37 countries surveyed, Pew Research Center found people believe AI will lead to job loss rather than job growth — the sharpest worry concentrated in precisely the countries where AI adoption is racing ahead fastest.
🔍 THE BOTTOM LINE
Public perception of AI’s impact on employment is markedly more pessimistic than most hiring data suggests — but the survey’s more revealing finding is uncertainty, not fear. In many countries a fifth of adults or more simply don’t know what AI will do to jobs, reaching four-in-ten in some middle-income nations. Workers are being asked to plan careers around a technology they cannot yet predict.
What the survey found
The report, published on 17 September 2026, draws on responses from 50,838 people across 37 middle- and high-income countries, surveyed between February and June 2026. The global average expecting job loss was 46 percent — comfortably ahead of those expecting AI to create jobs.
The geography is the striking part. Wealthier countries worry more: Australia and South Korea top the table at 76 percent each, with the United States at 71 percent, up 7 percentage points in two years — the only country where Pew has asked the question before, making it the one place with a real trend line, and it bends toward fear.
Why young adults are the most worried
Concern about AI-driven job loss skews young — adults aged 18 to 34 in countries including Canada, France and Singapore — a reversal from five years ago, when older people were the more anxious group. Pew associate director of research Laura Silver noted the shift is recent and sharp, particularly in the US.
The fear has a logical basis: entry-level and clerical roles are where most measured AI displacement has shown up, so the people at the bottom of the career ladder are watching the rungs being removed first. The US federal government’s own jobs data backs part of that picture — hiring stayed historically low through 2025, and July 2026’s Challenger report counted 23,000 US job cuts with AI leading all cited reasons for the fifth straight month.
Where perception and data part ways
What makes the survey worth publishing alongside the actual employment numbers is the gap between them. In the US, unemployment remains historically low by post-pandemic standards; in New Zealand, SEEK’s latest report shows job ads rising for a 21st consecutive month; global AI-exposed companies are adding headcount faster than those least exposed, with the most AI-exposed firms growing staff 52 percent versus 36 percent according to PwC’s barometer.
Neither side is simply wrong. The layoff data is real and growing; the hiring data is also real. Pew’s finding is best read as a lagging indicator: people update their beliefs on what they see — friends’ graduate job hunts, entry-level listings vanishing — faster than aggregate statistics change. In Australia, where pessimism tops the global table, the country’s own jobs market has stayed firm even as AI adoption accelerates, which suggests perception is tracking the technology’s arrival rather than its measured employment effect.
The uncertainty finding carries its own labour-market message. If roughly one in five adults in many countries — more in developing economies — cannot guess AI’s impact, the career-planning problem is not just competition but ambiguity. Pew’s Silver put it plainly: higher shares within each country “say they don’t know how it will impact jobs” — not that AI will create them. That ambiguity sits on top of a measured reality: Stanford’s analysis of payroll data has found no jobs apocalypse in the aggregate numbers, even as entry-level hiring shows real cracks — the gap between perception and payroll is exactly what this survey quantifies.
What it means for New Zealand
New Zealand was not among the 37 countries surveyed, but its nearest neighbour topping the global concern table is a genuine signal. Australian and NZ labour markets move closely together, and the pattern Pew found — young adults most anxious, entry-level roles the perceived pressure point — matches what Reserve Bank governor Anna Breman flagged to Parliament this month when she noted businesses’ technology investment focus could mean growth fails to lift employment as expected. The practical takeaway for Kiwi workers sits in the same place the data does: the AI-adjacent roles being added — in ICT, marketing and consulting — demand oversight and governance skills growing faster than pure technical ones.
FAQ
What percentage of people think AI will cause job loss? Pew’s 37-country survey found a global average of 46 percent expect AI to reduce jobs over the next 20 years. In high-income countries the figure is far higher — 76 percent in Australia and South Korea, 71 percent in the United States.
Which countries are most worried about AI taking jobs? Australia and South Korea lead at 76 percent each, followed by the United States at 71 percent. Worry rises with national income — wealthier countries with faster AI adoption report the highest concern.
Are young people more afraid of AI job loss? Yes. Adults aged 18 to 34 report the most concern in most surveyed countries, a reversal from five years ago when older adults were more anxious. US concern among young adults has risen 7 percentage points in two years.
Does the survey match actual jobs data? Only partly. Layoff reports show AI leading cited job-cut reasons, but hiring data — including rising NZ job ads and faster headcount growth at AI-exposed firms — points to continued demand. Pew’s data captures perception, which appears to be tracking AI adoption rather than measured employment change.
— CJ Murden, editor of Singularity.Kiwi. Former digital technologies teacher, author of AI-focused books. Writing with a New Zealand focus.
