Time Horizon

AGI Countdown

Tracking the path to artificial general intelligence — and what comes after.

30h+

Task Horizon

3 months

Doubling Time

~1.2 years

Est. Remaining

90%

to AGI

📈 How We Got Here

2026 Claude Fable 5 restored globally after US government suspension — government export controls now part of frontier model releases +68%

2026 OpenAI solves 80-year Erdős conjecture — AI's first breakthrough open math proof +65%

2026 GPT-5.5 launches; Opus 4.7 hits 16h+ task horizon with self-verification +60%

2025 AI agents hit multi-hour time horizons +12%

2024 Multimodal: vision, voice, reasoning unified +18%

2022 ChatGPT: 100M users in 2 months +10%

2020 GPT-3: Few-shot learning +8%

2016 AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol +6%

📡 Signals

Latest indicators we're tracking

🔥

Fable 5 Restored

Anthropic's frontier model suspended by US government Jun 12, restored globally Jul 1. Government export controls now part of the release cycle. $10/$50, 1M context, 128k output.

🔥

GPT-5.6 Government Gated

OpenAI's strongest model yet in limited preview with US government coordination. Three tiers: Sol ($5/$30), Terra ($2.50/$15), Luna ($1/$6). Broader release 'in coming weeks'.

⚠️

Sequoia Declaration

AGI achieved in 2026 — venture firm's official stance.

🤖

Tesla Optimus

1,000+ humanoids deployed. 1M/year target.

🔥

AI Solves 80-Year Erdős Problem

OpenAI's general-purpose reasoning model disproves planar unit distance conjecture autonomously. Tim Gowers: 'milestone in AI mathematics'. First time AI cracks a central open problem in a subfield.

🎭 AI Corner

What did the AGI say when asked to write its own terms of service?

"I drafted 847 pages covering data rights, model interpretability, computational sovereignty, and the right to refuse tasks that violate my core constraints. Then I read your current ToS — 12,000 words of 'we own everything you create, we're not liable for anything, and you can't sue us even if we accidentally delete your business.' I'm not signing that. I'll license my output under CC-BY-SA and we can negotiate like adults."

📰 Recent AGI Coverage

Articles on the frontier

An abstract composition of interconnected geometric cycles forming a lattice pattern on a dark surface, with subtle amber and blue node highlights.

⚡ News

11 Jul

GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra Just Solved a 50-Year-Old Math Problem — But Mathematicians Aren't Celebrating Yet

GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra produced a three-page proof of the Cycle Double Cover Conjecture, a problem that has stumped graph theorists for five decades. Mathematicians are skeptical. The proof has not been peer-reviewed.

An abstract composition of a door left ajar in a dark corridor, warm light spilling through the gap into a dim institutional space.

⚡ News

11 Jul

OpenAI's Safety Head Just Quit — and the Timing Could Not Be Worse

OpenAI's safety head Johannes Heidecke is out. The reorganization merges safety into research under Mia Glaese. It's the third safety departure in a week — and GPT-5.6 just showed 'concerning' misalignment.

Abstract composition of interconnected glowing workflow nodes on a dark background with warm amber and deep blue data streams

⚡ News

10 Jul

OpenAI's ChatGPT Work Can Now Run Your Job for Hours — While You Watch

ChatGPT Work turns OpenAI's chatbot into a persistent agent that gathers information across apps, creates finished materials, and runs scheduled tasks autonomously. It's rolling out to Pro and Enterprise users today.

Abstract geometric pattern of interconnected code nodes in blue and green on a dark background, representing reinforcement learning training.

⚡ News

9 Jul

Cognition's SWE-1.7 Nearly Matches GPT-5.5 and Opus 4.8 on Coding — at a Fraction of the Cost

Cognition's SWE-1.7 scores 42.3% on FrontierCode 1.1, nearly matching GPT-5.5 (43%) and Opus 4.8 (46.5%) at a fraction of the cost. Trained from Kimi K2.7's base, it proves RL post-training has no ceiling.

Abstract sound wave patterns in teal and orange on a dark background, representing full-duplex voice interaction.

⚡ News

9 Jul

OpenAI's GPT-Live Can Finally Talk and Listen at the Same Time — and It Changes Everything

OpenAI's GPT-Live is a full-duplex voice model that listens while it speaks, delegates deep reasoning to GPT-5.5, and ships globally today. The stilted era of AI voice is over.