💰 Economy
Productivity explosion. UBI gets real. Everything changes.
📊 The Numbers (Global)
AGI means intelligence becomes abundant. This is bigger than the industrial revolution.
🔮 Two Scenarios
🌸 Optimistic: Superabundance
AI generates unprecedented wealth. Everyone gets richer. Goods cost 10x less. Work becomes optional. UBI covers basics, most earn more on top.
⚠️ Pessimistic: Inequality Spike
AI owners capture gains. Middle class hollows out. UBI covers survival but not mobility. Wealth concentrates. Social unrest.
Reality falls between. Policy choices matter enormously.
💸 Universal Basic Income: Theory → Reality
Global Pilots
How It Could Work
AI productivity pays. Tax on automation. $1K/mo per adult covers basics.
Who Pays?
AI companies. Robot taxes. Data dividends. Carbon tax. Sovereign wealth funds.
NZ Trials
No UBI yet. But Super (NZ Super) is a form of universal income for 65+.
The Debate
Does UBI reduce work incentive? Evidence says no — people start businesses, study, create.
📉 Jobs Most Exposed
- Administrative, clerical, data entry — AI automation >80%
- Customer service, call centres — AI handles most tier-1 queries
- Retail, checkout — Self-service and cashierless stores
- Basic coding, content writing — AI-generated code and copy
📈 Jobs Least Exposed
- Healthcare, bedside care — Physical human presence required
- Trades (electrician, plumber) — Unstructured environments
- Creative direction, leadership — Human judgment, vision
- Nursing, social work — Empathy, human connection
🇳🇿 New Zealand Context
NZ's economy is 65% services. AI automation could displace 300,000+ jobs by 2035 — but also create new opportunities. The government is exploring AI policy frameworks and MBIE has established an AI Strategy Taskforce.
Key question: Will NZ tax AI productivity gains to fund UBI, or let wealth concentrate?
Current policy: No UBI. Super (NZ Super) is universal for 65+. ACC covers accidents. That's it.
🎯 What To Do
For Individuals
Build transferable skills. Focus on human-centered capabilities. Prepare financially.
For Policy
Support UBI pilots. Tax automation revenue. Invest in transition programmes.